Two months ago, we examined the impact of the Iran war on corporate credit risk forecasts around the world. The analysis showed...
The SaaSpocalypse Impact on Credit
For much of 2026, one question has dominated the technology sector: what happens to traditional software companies when...
Communication Services: The Sector Where Scale Hides the Tail
Sector dispersion has been a recurring theme in the monthly Credit Conditions Newsletter because distributional dynamics often...
Global Credit Risk After the Iran War Shock
This month we take a global look at the impact of the Iran war on corporate credit risk via analysis of median probability of...
Iran Shock Meets a Frozen Labor Market
The Iran-war energy shock arrived at a fragile moment in the U.S. labor market. It was not because layoffs were surging, but...
The Credibility Risk in Credit
February saw a modest widening in public credit spreads: the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate (IG) OAS widened from 75 bps at January...
Divergence in Credit Conditions: Index-Level Resilience vs Typical-Firm Strain
Markets opened 2026 with risk appetite intact, and early performance patterns suggested leadership may be broadening beyond the...
The Narrowing Definition of “Winner”
December capped a year in which headline growth and risk-on positioning coexisted with rising under-the-surface strain—a...
Three Years Post ChatGPT
November 30th marked the three-year anniversary since the public release of ChatGPT. Back then, the S&P 500 stood at 3,950...
Record Highs
October was another month for the history books. Equity markets notched new record highs: S&P 500 added $17 trillion since...
Non-conventional Fed actions lowered default risk in the short-term—but what’s coming next?
NEW YORK October 1, 2025: The U.S. markets have become conditioned to seeing the Federal Reserve step in whenever negative...
Tariffs: Learning from History to Chart a Path to the Future
NEW YORK September 2, 2025: Successful investing is the art of filtering out noise so that you can focus on signals leading to...