Research
Iran Shock Meets a Frozen Labor Market
The Iran-war energy shock arrived at a fragile moment in the U.S. labor market. It was not because layoffs were surging, but...
HJM++© Correlated Government Yield and Foreign Exchange Rate Simulations for Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, March 27, 2026
The Heath, Jarrow and Morton [1992] framework for simulation and valuation using risk-free interest rates has been called “the...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, March 27, 2026: Mostly Like Range for 3-Month Bill at 1% to 2% in 10 Years
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, March 6, 2026: 3-Month Bill Mostly Likely Range Drops 200 bp in 30 Months
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
The Credibility Risk in Credit
February saw a modest widening in public credit spreads: the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate (IG) OAS widened from 75 bps at January...
HJM++© Correlated Government Yield and Foreign Exchange Rate Simulations for Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, February 27, 2026
The Heath, Jarrow and Morton [1992] framework for simulation and valuation using risk-free interest rates has been called “the...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, February 27, 2026: 3-Month Bill Decline Stays on Track to 1% to 2% in 30 Months
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
HJM++© Correlated Government Yield and Foreign Exchange Rate Simulations for Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, February 20, 2026
The Heath, Jarrow and Morton [1992] framework for simulation and valuation using risk-free interest rates has been called “the...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, February 20, 2026: Quantifying the Fall in Treasury Yields
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
HJM++© Correlated Government Yield and Foreign Exchange Rate Simulations for Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, February 13, 2026
The Heath, Jarrow and Morton [1992] framework for simulation and valuation using risk-free interest rates has been called “the...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, February 13, 2026: 3-Month Bill 3.68% Today, 1%-2% Range in 30 Months
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
HJM++© Correlated Government Yield and Foreign Exchange Rate Simulations for Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, February 6, 2026
The Heath, Jarrow and Morton [1992] framework for simulation and valuation using risk-free interest rates has been called “the...