SAS and Kamakura
On June 27, 2022, SAS – the global AI and analytics leader – acquired Kamakura Corporation, a leading provider of risk management software, information and consulting. As a result of the acquisition we can now provide an unparalleled suite of integrated risk solutions, particularly concerning asset liability managment (ALM) and other essential solutions for the financial services industry. SAS has scaled resources to support Kamakura products, enabling SAS resources and selected specialized Partners. The Kamakura products are becoming an integrated part of the SAS Risk platform.
TROUBLED COMPANY INDEX®
The Troubled Company Index® measures the percentage of 41,500 public firms in 76 countries that have an annualized one- month default risk of over one percent.
DAILY
Kamakura Default Probabilities versus
Legacy Ratings
Kamakura Daily Bond Performance Attribution
KRIS Daily Default Probability and
Bond Cross-Validation
RESEARCH
SAS Weekly U.K. Gilt Yield and Pound Sterling Simulation, November 29, 2024: 1.7 Basis Points from Inverted Yields
Summary One month forward Gilt rates peak at 67% this week, compared to 5.72% the previous week. The 2-year/10-year United Kingdom Gilt spread closed the week at 017%, compared to 0.075% one week prior. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the probability of...
SAS Weekly Bund Yield and Euro Forecast, November 29, 2024: Median Scenario for the Euro 1 Year Forward 1.0288
Summary The 2-year/10-year Bund spread closed the week at a positive 149%, a change from 0.224% last week. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the maximum probability of a return to negative spreads is 0%, compared to 19.7% in the prior week, in the 91-day...
SAS Weekly Japanese Government Bond and Yen Simulation, November 29, 2024: 1-Month Forward Rates 3.58% at 30 Years Forward
Summary The median level for the yen-U.S. dollar exchange rate is 36 one year from now, compared to 163.28 last week, according to this week’s 100,000 scenario simulation of JGB yields and the exchange rate. Beyond 10 years, the JGB term premium is similar to that...
SAS Weekly Treasury Forecast, November 29, 2024: Simulated Yields Reflect Large Decline in Current Yields
Summary Over the last week, Treasury 2 year yields moved to 4.13% this week from 4.37% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.18%, compared with 4.41% last week. As a result, the current 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is now 0.05% compared to 0.04% last week....
SAS Weekly Bund Yield and Euro Forecast, November 22, 2024: Upward Sloping Yield Curve Stabilizes
Summary The 2-year/10-year Bund spread closed the week at a positive 0.227%, a change from 0.224% last week. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the maximum probability of a return to negative spreads is 19.7%, compared to 19.5% in the prior week, in the 91-day...
COMMENTARY
Dealing with Structural Evolution
Dealing with Structural Evolution NEW YORK: December 2, 2024: Equity markets have been behaving as if U.S. economic growth is the main theme. In fact, U.S. equities have been outperforming other asset classes for over a decade. As a result, the 90-day correlation...
Economic Trick or Treat?
NEW YORK: November 4,2024: Economic headlines—including those about employment, inflation, and the stock market--have been generally upbeat and positive lately. The S&P 500 has set 47 record highs thus far in 2024. Household net worth marked another all-time high...
The Abrupt End of an Era
NEW YORK: October 1, 2024: September 2024 was a month for the history books. The Fed started its long-anticipated easing cycle by cutting the federal funds rate for the first time in four years. Leading up to the FOMC meeting, expectations for the size of the cut were...
Reflections on Jackson Hole
NEW YORK: Sept. 3, 2024: Jackson Hole, Wyoming is a place of great beauty, as well as the site of the annual policy symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This year’s focus on monetary policy is especially significant because inflation has...
Emotion, Momentum and the Markets
NEW YORK, August 2, 2024: July has been quite a month. The Democrats selected a new candidate for president, former Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley called for immediate rate cuts amid recession concerns, and volatility spiked. After a brief sell-off, the...