This month we take a global look at the impact of the Iran war on corporate credit risk via analysis of median probability of default (PD) for a select group of countries. The initial corporate credit response to the Iran war shock was broad. Median 1yr PD rose across...

The Iran-war energy shock arrived at a fragile moment in the U.S. labor market. It was not because layoffs were surging, but because the labor market had shifted into a “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium. The driving forces behind the unusual labor situation have been a...

February saw a modest widening in public credit spreads: the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate (IG) OAS widened from 75 bps at January month-end to 86 bps at February month-end, while the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield OAS widened from 288 bps to 312 bps. Equity markets were little...

Markets opened 2026 with risk appetite intact, and early performance patterns suggested leadership may be broadening beyond the mega-caps (January: S&P 500 +1.4% vs Russell 2000 +5.3%). Risk assets continued to reward scale, liquidity, and perceived cash flow...

December capped a year in which headline growth and risk-on positioning coexisted with rising under-the-surface strain—a late-cycle mix that kept markets calm while widening the gap between credit “winners” and “losers.” Continuing the trends of outperformance, the US...