Two months ago, we examined the impact of the Iran war on corporate credit risk forecasts around the world. The analysis showed that after the initial jump in March, most markets retraced much of the move by April. Out of 9 countries examined, Japan, Qatar, and Korea...

For much of 2026, one question has dominated the technology sector: what happens to traditional software companies when artificial intelligence can write code, automate workflows, and allow customers to build applications themselves? The resulting concern manifested...

Sector dispersion has been a recurring theme in the monthly Credit Conditions Newsletter because distributional dynamics often say more about credit risk than sector averages. Two months ago, we highlighted the widening of default-probability distributions following...

This month we take a global look at the impact of the Iran war on corporate credit risk via analysis of median probability of default (PD) for a select group of countries. The initial corporate credit response to the Iran war shock was broad. Median 1yr PD rose across...

The Iran-war energy shock arrived at a fragile moment in the U.S. labor market. It was not because layoffs were surging, but because the labor market had shifted into a “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium. The driving forces behind the unusual labor situation have been a...