KAMAKURA TROUBLED COMPANY INDEX
The Kamakura Troubled Company Index® measures the percentage of 41,500 public firms in 76 countries that have an annualized one- month default risk of over one percent.
DAILY
Kamakura Default Probabilities versus
Legacy Ratings
Kamakura Daily Bond Performance Attribution

KRIS Daily Default Probability and
Bond Cross-Validation
NEWS & PRESS RELEASES
SAS Weekly Forecast, June 2, 2023: Treasury Forward Rates Shift Down in Short-term Maturities
The resolution of the Treasury debt cap crisis has resulted in a significant downward shift in the U.S. Treasury forward rate curve for near-term maturities compared to last week. Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show a...
The Importance of Making the Complex Simple
NEW YORK, June 2, 2023: In his 1989 book “One Up On Wall Street,” Peter Lynch has some prescient advice for today’s investors: Getting the story on a company is a lot easier if you understand the basic business. That’s why I’d rather invest in panty hose than in...
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 26, 2023: Inverted Yield Streak Now Third Longest Since 1976
As of Friday, the current streak of trading days with a negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has reached 225 days, the third longest streak of inverted yields since 1976. Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show a sharp...
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 19, 2023: Inverted Yield Streak Tied for Third Longest Since 1976
As of Friday, the current streak of trading days with a negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has reached 220 days, tied with the streak that ended in December, 2000 for third longest. Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates...
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 12, 2023: Steep Decline In 1-Month Forward Treasury Rates Imminent
Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show a sharp drop in the near term, especially in the second semi-annual period. The probability that the inverted yield curve ends by November 10, 2023 is now 27.6% compared to 33.1%...
EVENTS
ARCHIVES
PROBLEMS WE SOLVE
Asset Liability Management
Credit Portfolio Analysis and Default Probabilities
IFRS 9 and CECL
Market Risk
Credit Risk
Stress Testing
BLOGS

Donald R. van Deventer, Ph.D.

Martin Zorn currently serves as Kamakura's president and chief operating officer. In this role he oversees all day-to-day operations serving Kamakura risk management clients in 37 countries.

Sou-Cheng Choi, Ph.D.
Dr. Sou-Cheng T. Choi joined Kamakura as Chief Data Scientist on February 1st, 2020. Dr. Choi previously served as the Principal Data Scientist and Lead Researcher in Machine Learning for the automotive and life innovation groups at AllState.
SAS Weekly Forecast, June 2, 2023: Treasury Forward Rates Shift Down in Short-term Maturities
The resolution of the Treasury debt cap crisis has resulted in a significant downward shift in the U.S. Treasury forward rate...
Kamakura’s Presentation to the 2022 IACPM Spring Conference
There is No Free Lunch: How Portfolio Managers Need to Adapt to a Shifting Macroeconomic Paradigm Martin Zorn May 19, 2022...
GAIL—Guaranteed Automatic Integration Library in MATLAB: Documentation for Version 2.3
Authors: Sou-Cheng T. Choi, Yuhan Ding, Fred J. Hickernell, Lan Jiang,Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama, Da Li, Jagadeeswaran...