The Iran-war energy shock arrived at a fragile moment in the U.S. labor market. It was not because layoffs were surging, but...
The Credibility Risk in Credit
February saw a modest widening in public credit spreads: the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate (IG) OAS widened from 75 bps at January...
Divergence in Credit Conditions: Index-Level Resilience vs Typical-Firm Strain
Markets opened 2026 with risk appetite intact, and early performance patterns suggested leadership may be broadening beyond the...
The Narrowing Definition of “Winner”
December capped a year in which headline growth and risk-on positioning coexisted with rising under-the-surface strain—a...
Three Years Post ChatGPT
November 30th marked the three-year anniversary since the public release of ChatGPT. Back then, the S&P 500 stood at 3,950...
Record Highs
October was another month for the history books. Equity markets notched new record highs: S&P 500 added $17 trillion since...
Non-conventional Fed actions lowered default risk in the short-term—but what’s coming next?
NEW YORK October 1, 2025: The U.S. markets have become conditioned to seeing the Federal Reserve step in whenever negative...
Tariffs: Learning from History to Chart a Path to the Future
NEW YORK September 2, 2025: Successful investing is the art of filtering out noise so that you can focus on signals leading to...
Out of the Shadow of Government Debt
NEW YORK August 1, 2025: As the dog days of summer drag on in the Northern Hemisphere, the dynamics of government debt and...
From Integration to Separation: Risks and Opportunities from U.S.- China Decoupling
NEW YORK July 1, 2025: The history of U.S.-China trade in some ways mirrors the history of China itself: periods of stability...
Market Disturbances or Just Increased Volatility
NEW YORK June 2, 2025: On a flight home last week, since the seat pitch made it impossible to type on a laptop, I watched the...
Data Uncertainty and How to Deal With It
NEW YORK: May 1, 2025: This week’s economic news shot across the globe like a bullet: “U.S. Economy Shrank as Imports Surged...