Summary 28-day Bund forward rate peaks in the short-term (3.63%) and long-term (3.61%) moved closer together this week. This...
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SAS Weekly Forecast, September 8, 2023: Long-term U.S.Treasury Forward Rate Peak Near Short-term Peak
Summary The long-term peak in forward rates, at 5.48%, remains close to the short-term peak of 5.53%. The streak of negative...
SAS Weekly Euro Zone Forecast, September 1, 2023: Short-term and Long-term Forward Rate Peaks Converging
Summary 28-day Bund forward rate peaks in the short-term (3.67%) and long-term (3.59%) moved closer together this week. This...
SAS Weekly Forecast, September 1, 2023: Long-term U.S.Treasury Forward Rate Peak Exceeds Near-term Peak
This week’s twist in the U.S. Treasury 1-month forward rate curve reveals an important stepping stone toward normal yields. The...
SAS Weekly Euro Zone Forecast, August 25, 2023: End of Inverted Bund Yields Delayed
Summary The Bund 2-year/10-year spread widened to a negative 47.8 basis points from negative 42.2 basis points last week As a...
SAS Weekly Forecast, August 25, 2023: A Longer Wait for Positive Treasury Spreads
The streak of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads has now reached 287 trading days, 9 trading days longer than the third...
SAS Weekly Euro Zone Forecast, August 18, 2023: Peak in Bund 1-Month Forward Rates Drops to 3.52%
Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation...
SAS Weekly Forecast, August 11, 2023: 1 Day from Second Longest Streak of Negative 2-Year/10-Year Treasury Spreads
The streak of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads has now reached 277 trading days, 1 trading day from the second longest...
SAS Weekly Forecast, July 28, 2023: Long-run Peak In Treasury 1-Month Forward Rates Jumps 0.15% to 5.08%
The current Treasury yield curve implies a long-run peak of 1-month Treasury forward rates at 5.08%, up 0.15% from last week....
SAS Weekly Forecast, June 30, 2023: Negative 2-Year/10-Year Treasury Spread At 106 Basis Points
This week’s shift in the U.S. Treasury yield drove the negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread to a negative 106 basis points....
SAS Weekly Forecast, June 16, 2023: A Pause After the Pause
This week’s simulation shows an interest rate outlook very similar to last week, a pause after the Fed’s pause in rate hikes....
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 5, 2023: Long-term 1-Month Forward Rate Peak Drops 0.22%
Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show much less volatility this week. A sharp...