Summary The probability that the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is still negative in the 13 weeks ending May 24, 2024 is 73.6%,...
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SAS Weekly Forecast, November 17, 2023: Forward Treasury Peak Down 0.14%
Summary The probability that the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is still negative in the 13 weeks ending May 17, 2024 is 72.6%,...
SAS Weekly Forecast, November 10, 2023: Negative Treasury Spreads for Longer
Summary The probability that the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is still negative in the 13 weeks ending May 10, 2024 moved up...
SAS Weekly Forecast, November 3, 2023: Negative Treasury Spread Wavers
Summary The probability that the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is still negative in the 13 weeks ending May 3, 2024 moved up to...
SAS Weekly Bund Yield Forecast, October 27, 2023: 48.7% Probability Inverted Yields End in April
Summary The probability of a quick end to inverted Bund yields rose slightly this week as the current negative 2-year/10-year...
SAS Weekly Forecast, October 27, 2023: Waiting for the End of Inverted Yields
Summary The probability that the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is still negative in the 13 weeks ending April 26, 2024 is down...
SAS Weekly Bund Yield Forecast, October 20, 2023: 45.6% Chance Inverted Yields are Gone by April
Summary The probability of a quick end to inverted Bund yields bounced back up this week as the current negative 2-year/10-year...
SAS Weekly Forecast, October 20, 2023: The End of Inverted Yields is Near
Summary The probability that the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is still negative in the 13 weeks ending April 19, 2024 is down...
SAS Weekly Bund Yield Forecast, October 13, 2023: Negative 2-Year/10-Year Spreads Remain Volatile
Summary The current negative 2-year/10-year yield spread widened to negative 40.9 basis points from negative 23.0 basis points...
SAS Weekly Forecast, October 13, 2023: Waiting for the Drop
Summary The long-term peak in 1-month forward Treasuries is now 5.97%, down 0.20% from last week but well above the near-term...
New Version: The Valuation of Corporate Coupon Bonds
The Valuation of Corporate Coupon Bonds Jens Hilscher, Robert A. Jarrow, and Donald R. van Deventer Updated October 12, 2023...
SAS Weekly Bund Yield Forecast, October 6, 2023: End of Inverted Yields by April is a Coin Flip
Summary The probability of a quick end to inverted Bund yields jumped up as the current negative 2-year/10-year yield spread...