Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained in the 0% to 1% range. The probability of being in...
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SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, September 5, 2025: Most Likely Range for 3-Month Bill Rate in 10 Years Drops to 0% to 1% Range
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years edged down to the 0% to 1% range, down from 1% to 2% last...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 29, 2025: Steady Rate Cuts Ahead
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields falls to the 1% to 2% range within 30 months according to this week’s...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 22, 2025: 30 Months of Rate Cuts
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields falls to the 1% to 2% range within 30 months according to this week’s...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 15, 2025: Most Likely 3-month T-bill Yield Falls to 1% to 2% Range Within 30 Months
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields falls to the 1% to 2% range within 30 months according to this week’s...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 8, 2025: Measuring the Default Risk of Going Long and Borrowing Short
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 1, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Drops 0.06% to 5.91%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 25, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Drops 0.24% to 5.97%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 18, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Up 0.10% to 6.21%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 11, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Jumps 0.18% to 6.11%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
How Well Do U.S. Treasury Yields Forecast Inflation? An Update Through June 30, 2025
Donald R. van Deventer July 8, 2025 Abstract The size of the term premium embedded in the current U.S. Treasury yield curve has...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 3, 2025: Most Likely Level for 3-Month Bill Rate in Ten Years Steady at the 1% to 2% Range
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...