Summary The probability that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is over 5% in one year is 28% today. The probability that the...
CONNECT ME
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 21 2026: Probability of 3-Month Bill Yield Over 4% in One Year Jumps 7% to 38%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 14, 2026: Probability of 3-Month Bill Yield Over 4% in One Year Drops 4% to 31%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 7, 2026: Probability of 3-Month Bill Yield Over 4% in One Year Drops 19% to 35%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 31, 2026: 54% Probability of 3-Month Bill Yield Over 4% in One Year
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 24, 2026: 53% Probability of 3-Month Bill Yield Over 4% in One Year
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, June 26, 2026: Probability of Inverted Yields by March 2027 Remains Over 20%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, June 19, 2026: 25% Probability of Inverted Yields by March 2027
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, May 29, 2026: One-month Forward T-bill Rate Peak at 6.24%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, May 22, 2026: Probability of Inverted Yield Curve Over 20% by 2028
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, May 15, 2026: 3-Month Bill Rate Rises Briefly Then Declines to 1% to 2% Range
Summary After a short-term rise, the most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, May 8, 2026: 50,000 Scenarios that Perfectly Price Today’s Treasuries for Any Holding Period
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...