Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
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SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, January 2, 2026: Measuring the Term Premium in U.S. Treasuries
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, December 26, 2025: Yield Level Probabilities from 6 Months to 10 Years
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, December 12, 2025: Peak in 1-Month Treasury Bill Forwards Up to 6.25%
Summary Despite the Fed’s rate cut, the most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, December 5, 2025: Peak in 1-Month Treasury Bill Forwards Up to 6.06%
Summary The charts below allow any investor to calculate the probability that 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields are over or...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, November 28, 2025: Quantifying the 10-Year Decline in 3-Month Yields
Summary The charts below allow any investor to calculate the probability that 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields are over or...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, November 21, 2025: 10-Year Over-Under Probabilities for 3-Month and 10-Year Yields
Summary The charts below allow any investor to calculate the probability that 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields are over or...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, November 14, 2025: Most Likely Range for 3-Month T-Bill Ten Years Forward 1% to 2%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, November 7, 2025: Most Likely Range for 3-Month T-Bill Ten Years Forward Moves up 1%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years moved up to the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, October 31, 2025: One-Month Forward T-Bill Rates Peak at 5.85%, Up 0.16%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained in the 0% to 1% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, October 17, 2025: Ten Year Range for the 3-Month Bill Yield 0% to 2%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained in the 0% to 1% range this week. The probability of...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, October 10, 2025: Measuring the Impact of the China Rare Earth Love Letter
Summary Treasury yields dropped more in response to a letter from China than they did in reaction to Jerome Powell’s too-late...