Summary The probability of a quick end to inverted Bund yields bounced back up this week as the current negative 2-year/10-year...
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SAS Weekly Forecast, September 22, 2023: 1-Month Forward Treasuries Peak at 5.58% in 2039
Summary The long-term peak in 1-month forward Treasuries is now 5.58%, just above the near-term peak at 5.54%. The simulated...
SAS Weekly Bund Yield Forecast, September 15, 2023: Delayed Gratification
Summary The probability of a quick end to inverted Bund yields dropped substantially this week as the current negative...
SAS Weekly Forecast, September 15, 2023: 1-Month Forward Treasuries Range from 4% to 6% for 20 Years
Summary The level of 1-month forward rates implied by the current Treasury yield curve ranges from 4% to 6% for 20 years. The...
SAS Weekly Forecast, September 8, 2023: Long-term U.S.Treasury Forward Rate Peak Near Short-term Peak
Summary The long-term peak in forward rates, at 5.48%, remains close to the short-term peak of 5.53%. The streak of negative...
SAS Weekly Euro Zone Forecast, September 1, 2023: Short-term and Long-term Forward Rate Peaks Converging
Summary 28-day Bund forward rate peaks in the short-term (3.67%) and long-term (3.59%) moved closer together this week. This...
SAS Weekly Forecast, September 1, 2023: Long-term U.S.Treasury Forward Rate Peak Exceeds Near-term Peak
This week’s twist in the U.S. Treasury 1-month forward rate curve reveals an important stepping stone toward normal yields. The...
SAS Weekly Forecast, August 25, 2023: A Longer Wait for Positive Treasury Spreads
The streak of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads has now reached 287 trading days, 9 trading days longer than the third...
SAS Weekly Forecast, August 18, 2023: Short and Long-term Forward Rate Peaks Just 4 Basis Points Apart
The streak of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads has now reached 282 trading days, 4 trading days longer than the third...
SAS Weekly Euro Zone Forecast, August 11, 2023: 32.8% Probability that Negative 2-year/10-year Bund Spread Ends by February
Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation...
SAS Weekly Forecast, August 11, 2023: 1 Day from Second Longest Streak of Negative 2-Year/10-Year Treasury Spreads
The streak of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads has now reached 277 trading days, 1 trading day from the second longest...
SAS Weekly Euro Zone Forecast, August 4, 2023: 20.4% Probability that Negative 2-year/10-year Bund Spread Ends by February
Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation...