Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields edged into the 1% to 2% range, just 1 basis point more likely than the 0%...
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SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, April 11, 2025: Most Likely Range for 3-Month Bills in 10 Years Rises to 1% to 2%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields edged into the 1% to 2% range, just 1 basis point more likely than the 0%...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, April 4, 2025: Impacts of the Tariff Shocks
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 3.68% this week from 3.89% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.01%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, March 21, 2025: Measuring the Risk and Reward from Going Long
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 3.89% this week from 3.97% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.27%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, March 21, 2025: Most Likely Range for 3-Month Yield Reverts to 0% to 1% in 2035
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 3.94% this week from 3.95% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.25%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, March 14, 2025: Most Likely Range for 3-Month Yield Rises to 1% to 2% in 2035
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.02% this week from 3.99% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.31%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, March 7, 2025: Long-run 1-Month Forward Rates Up 0.22%
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 3.99% this week from 3.99% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.32%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, February 14, 2024: Most Likely Range for 10-Year Yield is 2% to 3% in 2035
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.26% this week from 4.31% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.47%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, February 7, 2024: 2-Year/10-Year Spread Narrows to 0.20%
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.29% this week from 4.22% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.49%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, January 31, 2024: Term Premium for Going Long is Significant
Summary Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.22% this week from 4.27% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.58%, compared...
SAS Weekly Treasury Forecast, January 24, 2024: 46.71% Default Probability for a Bank Holding 10-Year Treasuries with 5% Equity
Summary Over the last week, Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.27% this week from 4.29% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield...
SAS Weekly Treasury Forecast, January 17, 2024, With Downloadable Scenario Summaries
Summary Over the last week, Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.27% this week from 4.4% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield...