The long-term 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 4.75%, down 25 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof....
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SAS Weekly Forecast, November 25, 2022: U.S. Treasury Forward Rates Flatten Out
The 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.00%, down 16 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof. Robert...
SAS Weekly Forecast, November 18, 2022: Peak in 1-Month Treasury Forward Rates Falls 0.35% to 5.16%
The 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.16%, down 35 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof. Robert...
SAS Weekly Forecast, November 10, 2022: Treasury Yields Plunge But Peak in Forward Rates Drops Just 0.09% to 5.51%
The 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.51%, down 9 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof. Robert...
SAS Weekly Forecast, November 4, 2022: Most Likely 3-Month Treasury Yields in 10 Years within 1% to 2% Range
The 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.60%, up 14 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof. Robert...
SAS Weekly Forecast, October 28, 2022: Treasury 1-Month Forward Rate Peak Slides 0.20% to 5.46%
The 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.46%, down 20 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof. Robert...
A 10-Factor Heath, Jarrow, and Morton Stochastic Volatility Model for the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve, Using Daily Data from January 1, 1962 through September 30, 2022
Daniel Dickler, Robert Jarrow, Stas Melnikov, Alexandre Telnov, Donald R. van Deventer and Xiaoming Wang[1] First Version:...
SAS Weekly Forecast, October 21, 2022: Treasury 1-Month Forward Rate Peak Jumps 0.41% to 5.66%
The 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.66%, up 41 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof. Robert...
SAS Weekly Forecast, October 14, 2022: Treasury 1-Month Forward Rate Peak Up 0.32% to 5.25%
The 1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.25%, up 32 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof. Robert...
SAS Weekly Forecast, October 7, 2022: Near-term Forward Rate Peak up 0.31% to 4.84%
The near-term forward 1-month U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 4.84%, up 31 basis points from last week. As explained in Prof....
SAS Weekly Forecast, September 30, 2022: Market Rate Expectations Step Up
Using daily Treasury data from 1962, this week’s simulation shows a step up in market expectations gleaned from a rational...
SAS Weekly Forecast, September 23, 2022: Peak in 1-month Forward Treasury Rates Falls 0.21% to 4.68% on Yield Curve Twist
The Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point increase resulted in a yield curve twist, with shorter term Treasury yields shifting up and...