This week’s shift in the U.S. Treasury yield drove the negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread to a negative 106 basis points....
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SAS Weekly Euro Zone Forecast, June 23, 2023: Inverted Bund Yields Likely to Persist into 2024
This week’s simulation shows that the current negative 2-year/10-year Bund yield spread is very likely to persist at least...
SAS Weekly Forecast, June 23, 2023: Inverted Treasury Yields Near Certainty Through Year-End
This week’s simulation shows that the current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread is a near certainty to persist at...
SAS Weekly Forecast, June 9, 2023: A 14-Country Perspective on U.S. Treasury Yields
Beginning with this forecast, we benchmark the U.S. Treasury simulation on a database with seven times more data than U.S....
SAS Weekly Forecast, June 2, 2023: Treasury Forward Rates Shift Down in Short-term Maturities
The resolution of the Treasury debt cap crisis has resulted in a significant downward shift in the U.S. Treasury forward rate...
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 26, 2023: Inverted Yield Streak Now Third Longest Since 1976
As of Friday, the current streak of trading days with a negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has reached 225 days, the third...
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 19, 2023: Inverted Yield Streak Tied for Third Longest Since 1976
As of Friday, the current streak of trading days with a negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has reached 220 days, tied with...
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 12, 2023: Steep Decline In 1-Month Forward Treasury Rates Imminent
Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show a sharp drop in the near term, especially...
SAS Weekly Forecast, May 5, 2023: Long-term 1-Month Forward Rate Peak Drops 0.22%
Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show much less volatility this week. A sharp...
SAS Weekly Forecast, April 28, 2023: Treasury Debt Cap Distortion Moderates
Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show high volatility and a sharp downshift,...
SAS Weekly Forecast, April 21, 2023: Measuring Treasury Debt Cap Distortion
Both implied forward Treasury 1-month bill rates and simulated 3-month bill rates show high volatility and a sharp downshift,...
A 10-Factor Heath, Jarrow, and Morton Stochastic Volatility Model for the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve, Using Daily Data from January 1, 1962 through March 31, 2023
Daniel Dickler, Robert Jarrow, Stas Melnikov, Alexandre Telnov, Donald R. van Deventer and Xiaoming Wang[1] First Version: April...