Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years moved back to the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of...
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SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, September 19, 2025: Fed Rate Changes are the Tail, Not the Dog
Summary This week’s Treasury yield simulation showed little change from last week, confirming the view of many market...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, September 12, 2025: 44% Probability 3-Month Bill Rate in 10 Years is in 0% to 2% Range
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained in the 0% to 1% range. The probability of being in...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, September 5, 2025: Most Likely Range for 3-Month Bill Rate in 10 Years Drops to 0% to 1% Range
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years edged down to the 0% to 1% range, down from 1% to 2% last...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 29, 2025: Steady Rate Cuts Ahead
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields falls to the 1% to 2% range within 30 months according to this week’s...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 22, 2025: 30 Months of Rate Cuts
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields falls to the 1% to 2% range within 30 months according to this week’s...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 15, 2025: Most Likely 3-month T-bill Yield Falls to 1% to 2% Range Within 30 Months
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields falls to the 1% to 2% range within 30 months according to this week’s...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 8, 2025: Measuring the Default Risk of Going Long and Borrowing Short
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, August 1, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Drops 0.06% to 5.91%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 25, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Drops 0.24% to 5.97%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 18, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Up 0.10% to 6.21%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...
SAS Weekly Treasury Simulation, July 11, 2025: Peak in One-Month Forward Treasuries Jumps 0.18% to 6.11%
Summary The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is the 1% to 2% range, unchanged from last week. The probability of being...