ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Donald R. Van Deventer, Ph.D.

Don founded Kamakura Corporation in April 1990 and currently serves as its chairman and chief executive officer where he focuses on enterprise wide risk management and modern credit risk technology. His primary financial consulting and research interests involve the practical application of leading edge financial theory to solve critical financial risk management problems. Don was elected to the 50 member RISK Magazine Hall of Fame in 2002 for his work at Kamakura.

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A 10-Factor Heath, Jarrow, and Morton Stochastic Volatility Model for the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve, Using Daily Data from January 1, 1962 through December 31, 2021

01/25/2022 09:30 AM

Donald R. van Deventer

First Version: January 24, 2022

This Version: January 25, 2022

 

ABSTRACT

Please note: Kamakura Corporation term structure models are updated monthly.  For the most recent set of coefficients, contact info@kamakuraco.com

This paper analyzes the number and the nature of factors driving the movements in the U.S. Treasury yield curve from January 2, 1962 through December 31, 2021. The process of model implementation confirms a number of important insights for interest rate modeling generally. First, model validation of historical yields is important because those yields are the product of a third-party curve fitting process that may produce spurious indications of interest rate volatility. Second, quantitative measures of smoothness and international comparisons of smoothness provide a basis for measuring the quality of simulated yield curves. Third, we outline a process for incorporating insights from the Japanese and European experience with negative interest rates into term structure models with stochastic volatility in the United States and other countries.  Finally, we illustrate the process for comparing stochastic volatility and affine models of the term structure.  We conclude that stochastic volatility models have a superior fit, when out-of-sample simulation is the objective, to the history of yield movements in the U.S. Treasury market.

Kamakura-AnUpdatedHJMModelforUSTreasuriesv2-20220125

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Donald R. Van Deventer, Ph.D.

Don founded Kamakura Corporation in April 1990 and currently serves as its chairman and chief executive officer where he focuses on enterprise wide risk management and modern credit risk technology. His primary financial consulting and research interests involve the practical application of leading edge financial theory to solve critical financial risk management problems. Don was elected to the 50 member RISK Magazine Hall of Fame in 2002 for his work at Kamakura.

Read More