In a new post on www.seekingalpha.com, I take on the issue of yield curve forecasting for a sophisticated general audience. Many investors initially believe that they can predict interest rates, so I related my 45-year history working with financial institutions whose management ultimately concluded that was an impossible task. We present this table of the probability distribution for 3-month Treasury bill in semi-annual time steps 10 years forward:
You can find the article at this link, although you’ll have to create a free account if you are not already signed up at SeekingAlpha.
To generate the forward interest rate distributions, we combine these components:
- A daily history starting in January 1962 of U.S. Treasury yields from the Department of the Treasury.
- Powerful yield curve smoothing in Kamakura Risk Manager version 10.
- 1,000,000 forward-looking simulations of the shocks to the yield curve that best explain historical movements in Treasury yields from 1962 to the present.
There’s an example of how these simulations are done at this link. Any questions? Please contact us at email@example.com.