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 About Martin Zorn

Martin Zorn currently serves as Kamakura's president and chief operating officer.  In this role he oversees all day-to-day operations serving Kamakura risk management clients in 37 countries.  He joined Kamakura in January 2011 as chief financial officer and chief administrative officer. Read More

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Kamakura Corporation
2222 Kalakaua Avenue

Suite 1400
Honolulu HI 96815

Phone: 808.791.9888
Fax: 808.791.9898

Americas, Canada
James McKeon
Director of USA Business Solutions
Phone: 215.932.0312

Andrew Zippan
Director, North America (Canada)
Phone: 647.405.0895
Asia, Pacific
Clement Ooi
President, Asia Pacific Operations
Phone: +65.6818.6336

Australia, New Zealand
Andrew Cowton
Managing Director
Phone: +61.3.9563.6082

Europe, Middle East, Africa
Jim Moloney
Managing Director, EMEA
Phone: +

Tokyo, Japan
3-6-7 Kita-Aoyama, Level 11
Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0061 Japan
Toshio Murate
Phone: +03.5778.7807

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Technical Business Consultant – Asia Pacific Region
Business Consultant – Asia Pacific Region


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Europe, North America, Asia & Australia 



Kamakura Blog


Well, you can swing it you can groove it
You can really start to move it at the hop
Where the jockey is the smoothest
And the music is the coolest at the hop
All the cats and chicks can get their kicks at the hop
Let's go!

—“At the Hop,” by Artie Singer, John Medora and David White; originally released by Danny & the Juniors

If you substitute “top” for “hop,” this song does a pretty good job of describing today’s credit markets. That means if you are taking credit risk, life is good—right?

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Over the past several years the changes in regulations have transformed the landscape for public funds. On the one hand it has increased the attractiveness of public funds for community banks and has also increased the management challenges for state Treasurers. The largest banks currently hold the majority of the public fund deposits in the U.S. according to FDIC data. With the implementation of the Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) these deposits become less attractive to the large banks given the run-off rate calculations required by LCR and requirement for collateralization. While public funds are less attractive for the large institutions they remain very attractive for the community banks that are not affected by LCR.

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While often attempted history proves that one cannot repeal the business and credit cycle.  The cycle always seems to be the same although the triggers and environment may be different.  Losses peak, loan demand and supply dry up, the appetite for risk evaporates while households and businesses begin the process of repairing their respective balance sheets.  Slowly investors start stretching for yield and lenders (banks, shadow banks and capital markets) begin to ease credit terms, soon followed by increased usage of leverage.  A review of the Federal Reserve Senior Credit Officer Survey bears out this cycle. 

This cyclical nature of credit and default risk can clearly be seen from the history of the Kamakura Troubled Company Index going back to its introduction in 1990.

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The Kamakura troubled company index measures the percentage of more than 36,000 public firms in 61 countries that have annualized 1 month default risk over one percent. An increase in the index reflects declining credit quality while a decrease reflects improving credit quality. The default probabilities are produced by KRIS (Kamakura Risk Information Services) version 5.0 Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability model, a formula that bases default predictions on a sophisticated combination of company-specific, market and macro-economic factors. The default probabilities are updated on a daily basis and have proven to be highly accurate in their predictive ability.

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Since our last update on the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, events have been unfolding rapidly. On Friday, the Senate in Puerto Rico approved a $3.5 billion bond issue. The Bond Buyer highlighted events in Puerto Rico in its weekly review. Hedge funds, the likely potential buyers of the new bond issue(s), are demanding that governing law change from Puerto Rico to New York. Speculators are beginning to sense a <a href="

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